Democrats are banking on Johnsons unpopularity to give them an edge in one of the only contests this year where they stand a chance of knocking off a Republican incumbent as they defend a narrow Senate majority. Kelly, on the other hand, does have a brand distinct from the national Democratic Party, but its an open question whether she can get enough Kansas Republicans who approve of her to take the extra step and vote for her as well. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. This is less true for governors, however. WISN host Adrienne Pederson grilled Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) about his toxic brand and his low approval ratings.In an interview on Sunday, Pederson asked Johnson how he planned to win re-election . Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. But Barnes' campaign has largely focused on economic issues, highlighting his middle-class upbringing in Milwaukee and contrasting it with Johnson's status as one of the richest members of the Senate. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. Jones is a Democratic senator in R+27 Alabama, so hes fighting an uphill battle. But what we cant be as confident about is whether its reversible.. And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images), Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll, Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks, 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks. Johnson's campaign had raised more than $17 million by July 20, compared with $7 million raised by Barnes though Barnes' campaign said on Aug. 1 that it raised $1.1 million in just a week, after his Democratic rivals united behind him. Previous Morning Consult polling has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. In . Partisan types. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. The questions are: What happens to the political environment is it good enough that it can lift him over the top? Compared with his peak in popularity in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 when his average favorability rating was plus 10 the downturn is notable. The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maines light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it. In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson - who aligned with Trump's election challenge publicly while reportedly admitting privately that Biden won - starts the 2022 cycle with one of the weakest approval ratings (61 percent) among GOP voters. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. In other words, compared with a similar low point in the previous election cycle, Johnson is doing better with his best groups and worse with his worst groups. Lt. Gov. During the pandemic, the senator has blasted health agencies and medical experts, promoted unproven treatments and questioned the broad push for vaccination. In Marquettes recent polling, there is now a massive 130-point partisan gap in attitudes toward Johnson: plus 57 among Republicans, minus 73 among Democrats. Meanwhile, only about 1 in 4 Wisconsin Republicans (27 percent) strongly approve of Johnsons job performance, which is down 9 points since the first three months of his term. Libertarian Seth Cordell and independent . PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. The Republican is currently seeking reelection to a third term, breaking a promise to serve no more than two. Biden's approval rating rises to 45% from 36% in July. For this analysis, Franklin and I examined Johnsons popularity with different demographic and political groups: men, women, old, young, liberal, conservative, urban, rural, suburban, etc. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the . Buy It Now. Tony Earlagainst his four potential Republican challengers, with Evers leading all four and Kleefisch running closest to the governor. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1420576007798-2'); }); Need to report an error? Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. Asked what Johnson is doing to improve his standing, spokeswoman Alexa Henning said his supporters discount mainstream media outlets and see through the lies and distortions of their false attacks. She said the senator had received strong encouragement to forgo his two-term pledge and run for re-election from Wisconsinites who share his grave concerns over the direction Democrats are taking our country.. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Appointment o Appoint ambassadors, public ministers, federal judges: with advice and consent of the Senate o Appoints about 3,500 people, of which 1,125 require Senate approval o Can remove many of these apps at will o Technically appts military personnel o Selection of the right people: very imp o Cabinet: formal body of presidential . He simply cant introduce himself for the first time to an electorate that sees him spin further and further into the most toxic reaches.. This is up from 80% a year ago, even though 87% of respondents had deployed anti-virus software. (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. But PARS reveals why the handicappers arent so sure. 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. In October, Johnson said that the top 1% of earners already pay "pretty close to a fair share. The WOW counties have been growing less Republican, and the recent decline in Johnsons ratings in this region is striking. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. Some 95% of Democrats in the poll support Barnes over Johnson, the same as in June, while 92% of Republicans favor Johnson to Barnes, up slightly from 89% two months ago, according to the poll of 811 Wisconsin registered voters conducted between August 10-15. A. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. Frankly, who cares what you think about Biden, the real question about your thinking is: Do you really believe voters are equally sickened by Biden as they truly are with Trump? Johnson's approval ratings have decreased in the last few years, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. But its worth remembering that Lucy has held this football in front of Democrats before. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. Theres such a striking decline, and its a decline that has been sustained through 2020, 2021 and now into 2022. The two-term senator has real political strengths: incumbency, an enthusiastic GOP base and the political tailwinds of running in a midterm election against the party of the president. But what they missed was that she could create a sincere connection with those working-class voters in rural areas and in Democratic-rich Dane [County] and Milwaukee.. Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-61. Only 6 percent of employees able to do their jobs remotely Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. We want to hear from you. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? The senators name recognition has grown to its highest levels. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. Scribd is the world's largest social reading and publishing site. Approval rating Approval Disapproval rating Disapproval Net approval. Johnsons name recognition is also significantly higher today than it was back then. Democratic Lt. Gov. The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. The state is closely divided in its partisan affiliation- 29% say they're Democrats, 31% say they're Republicans, and 39% say they're [] In September, among likely voters, Johnson received 49% and Barnes 48%. Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. Steve Sisolak of Nevada also has a distinct personal brand that could help him weather a tough reelection campaign in purple Nevada. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . . The Wisconsin Republican remains deeply disliked by his constituents. Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 a stretch of 61 statewide polls. Gerald Ford 1974-77. For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). With a PARG of +13, Democratic Gov. Condition: --. Nationally, Sen. Joe Manchin is best known as a thorn in liberals side because he has opposed President Bidens agenda on the social safety net, voting rights, abortion and more. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. In an interview with CNN, Barnes said Johnson turned his back on working people. Johnson repeatedly referred to Barnes as radical, posting a tweet calling him the Democratic Partys most radical left candidate. The race has become one of the most highly anticipated races in the November election, as both parties attempt to tip the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate (Vice President Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker). Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago. Senator Ron Johnson's . In Marquettes last poll, 36% of voters viewed him favorably and 58% viewed him unfavorably. The survey released Wednesday found slipping approval ratings for Democratic Gov. Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, Andrew Hitt, former chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, called Johnson a master at retail politics whose plain-spoken, calling it as he sees it approach appeals to Wisconsinites when leveraged appropriately. Johnson, 67, is also the subject of an ethics complaint over a $280,000 gift to his chief of staff, which he argued was intended for the employees cancer treatments, NBC News reported. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. Many conservatives see Barnes, an outspoken progressive whos called House progressive Squad member IIhan Omar of Minnesota brilliant, as the perfect foil for Johnson to caricature as extreme. As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs whether to run again, his embrace of Trump's anti-democratic campaign to overturn the election results already has angered some mainstream Republican allies, and is poised As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs future, Trump ties take a toll The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (among other news outlets) is reporting that two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has decided to run and will make his formal announcement very soon: Johnson . Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. RCP House Ratings, Map. Ronald Reagan 1981-89. All rights reserved. This made him the second-most unpopular senator out of the 100 currently serving, after only McConnell; Kentucky voters disapprove of him by a 60%-33% margin. 2022 Governors Elections (39) While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. Bill Clinton 1993-2001. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. Republicans will probably say that they want a more progressive candidate like Mandela to run against they said the same thing about Tammy, a liberal LGBTQ woman from Madison with a long congressional record, she said. Instead of moving to the center, though, as he faces reelection this fall, the Wisconsin senator has . But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . Hi. Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Maggie Hassan and Catherine Cortez Masto all have PARS scores of at least +7, suggesting that they are capable of outperforming the base partisanship of their state. The new poll found that 67% of Republicans are very excited about the election, compared to 58% of Democrats and 35% of independents. But a comparison between then and now also points to the challenges Johnson faces. But in fact, he has been quite polarizing. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= -5). Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. Johnson breezed through the state's Republican primary election Tuesday night, NBC News projected. At this time last week, 42.2 percent approved and 52.5 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. That poll . Heading into this years campaign, though, Morning Consults quarterly tracking shows Johnsons approval rating severely underwater. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. 2 in PARS with a score of +33. A Division of NBCUniversal. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. Why has the electorate increasingly polarized over Johnson? Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. But that isnt likely to be enough in a state that produces such narrow margins of victory. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. 2022 Senate Elections (51) The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. Sykes agreed the Democratic Party has what it takes to pull off a victory, but warned that a lot of what happens in November may be out of their control. Have questions? This unpopularity could drag him down in November, allowing Democrats to flip a Senate seat that, on paper, should remain Republican in this environment. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (its +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, commentator and reporter since 1984, is the author of three books, and is now researching the life and career of a U.S. Chief Justice. Johnson won his bid for a second term that year by 3 points over Democrat Russ Feingold. Tony Evers, who is down from 50% to 45%. . All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate. The majority of senators have PARS scores in the single digits, indicating that their approval rating is largely determined by the partisanship of their states. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) thinks he has done 'a really good job,' even with an approval rating of 36%. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. Everss PARG is just +1, suggesting perceptions of him are strongly dependent on partisanship. Voicemail to me on election night 18 yrs. His race is expected to be very competitive. 1990 FLEER. Ronald Reagan, the nation's 40th president, became one of the nation's most revered public figures in recent years, a distinct turnabout from the average job approval ratings he received while in office between 1981 and 1989. Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular.
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