Megadrought in Southwest Is Now the Worst in at Least 1,200 Years Today nearly all the glaciers in the Southwest are gone, and the climate is in an arid state. Onion Creek salt diapir, a salt dome exposed at the surface at Fisher Towers, Utah. Photo of USNM 166396 from the Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life(Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped). Trees killed by bark beetles at Cameron Pass, Colorado, 2011. Raucous summer thunderstorms characteristic of the monsoon season are spotty, while drizzly winter storms last longer and engulf large portions of the region. Arizona's climate is influenced by three main topographical areas: the high Colorado Plateau (about 15202130 meters or 50007000 feet in elevation), the rugged mountains to the west (27403660 meters or 900012000 feet high), and the low southwestern mountains with desert valleys (as low as 30 meters or 100 feet above sea level). Long-Range Weather Forecast for Desert Southwest - Almanac.com Climate Impacts in the Southwest | Climate Change Impacts | US EPA Sun and storm in Weld County, in the Great Plains region of Colorado, 2015. By the late Carboniferous, North America had collided with Gondwana, leading to the formation of Pangaeaa supercontinent composed of nearly all the landmass on Earth. In the early Carboniferous (Mississippian), ice capped the South Pole and began to expand northward. Climate change can intensify multiple stresses that push a species past a survival threshold. Frequent showers and thunderstorms continue well into the summer. Download related technical information PDF, https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx, A Closer Look: Temperature and Drought in the Southwest. Forecasts had all of this widespread flash flooding. Convective mixing forces the moisture in warm air to condense as it comes into contact with cool air, forming vapor (clouds) and precipitation (for example, rain or hail). Left:Warm air rises. Water vapor animation for the afternoon of August 22, 2018 showing the monsoon circulation and thunderstorm formation (dark blue, green, dark red). The lack of moisture in the air allows heat trapped in the earth during daylight hours to rapidly radiate away, leading to cool evenings. In 2000-2003, the combination of severe drought and unusually high temperatures led to a significant die-off of pion pines in the Four Corners region of the Southwest. For example, the difference in annual mean temperature between Pikes Peak (4302 meters or 14,114 feet) and Las Animas (1188 meters or 3898 feet), only 145 kilometers (90 miles) to the southeast, is equivalent to that between Iceland and southern Florida! Las Cruces, New Mexico, 2006. In the podcast episode 2021a generational monsoon? Zack listed some of the factors that influence how much moisture is available to the monsoon, including the position of the high-pressure area, wind patterns, and transient weather features. Photo by Lane Pearman (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Scale bar = 1 centimeter (about 0.4 inches). Scientists first noted the seasonal rainfall patterns in the Southwest in the early 20th century, with the circulation pattern being understood as monsoonal by midcentury. While this will help with the ongoing drought in the southwest, in many regions the precipitation deficit has been building for a long time. Droughts also contribute to increased pest outbreaks and wildfires, both of which damage local economies, and they reduce the amount of water available for generating electricityfor example, at the Hoover Dam.1. Percent of total annual precipitation occurring during JulySeptember, based on 19792020 using CPC Unified rain-gauge-based data. That timeworn classic is only partially true--May and September can also be great summer months. As the Triassic period began, the Southwest moved north from the equator. Storms form when there is strong convection in the atmosphere. Arizona's highest elevations receive an average of 65 to 76 centimeters (25 to 30 inches), with lower areas in the states southwestern portion averaging less than 8 centimeters (3 inches). During much of the year, the prevailing wind over northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico is westerly (blowing from the west) and dry. Northwestern Mexico receives upwards of 75% of its average annual precipitation from it, and Arizona and New Mexico more than 50%, during JulySeptember. See the Drought indicator for more information about these indices. Mesohippusmeasured up to 70 centimeters (2 feet) at shoulder height. Earth 300 million years ago, during the end of the Carboniferous Period (Pennsylvanian). Extensive Permian deposits throughout the Southwest are home to a host of fossils, including terrestrial amphibians, reptiles, and synapsids. Lake Mead, the lake created by the Hoover Dam, at two points in time about 21 years apart. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States. PRI is a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. The Southwest contributes significantly to climate change. On the other hand, there is not much agreement among projections for future change in the monsoon, except for regarding the timingmost projections suggest that, under continued climate change, the monsoon will start later in the summer and end later in the fall than it currently does (3). SW Precipitation | CLIMAS All the weather intel you need for summer 2021 is here -- including what's in store for wildfire season . Cattle ranches throughout the southwestern states rely on rain-fed grazing forage, making them extremely susceptible to climate change and drought. The warm, arid Southwest region presents extreme challenges to turf grasses in low- and high-desert climates. The onset of stream flows from melting snow in Colorado has shifted two weeks earlier due to warming spring temperatures. The warmer the air near the surface is relative to the air above it, the more potential energy it has to move up. Earth 150 million years ago, near the end of the Jurassic Period. Winter is the driest season in New Mexico, because precipitation from eastward-traveling Pacific storms is left behind in the western mountains of Arizona and Utah. Large lakes covered parts of northern Utah and Colorado. This page uses Google Analytics. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Sand dunes started to become widespread. Where the land was exposed, deposits of dust (loess) accumulated and were blown across much of the Southwest. The cities of Aspen and Lafayette, Colorado, as well as the state of New Mexico, were early adopters of the 2030 Challenge, an effort to reduce fossil fuel use in buildings so that both new and renovated buildings would qualify as carbon neutral by the year 2030. JavaScript appears to be disabled on this computer. Since 1980, tree mortality in forests and woodlands across the Southwest has been higher and more extensive than at any time during the previous 90 years. Taken on September 23, 2017. Burning those fossil fuels releases carbon into the atmosphere, which warms the Earth. Photo by Richard Stephen Haynes (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image resized). A shift in plant type to those better adapted to drier conditions further suggests a change in climate during the Permian. Thanks to the region's high temperatures and low precipitation levels from summer 2020 through summer 2021, the current drought has exceeded the severity of a late-1500s megadrought that previously had been identified by the same authors as the driest in 1,200 years. The summer precipitation total for the CONUS was 9.48 inches, 1.16 inch above average, ranking eighth wettest in the historical record. Cold continental conditions dominate the higher altitudes, especially within the Rocky Mountains. Roadcut exposing lake sediments of the Eocene Green River Formation, Duchesne County, Utah. Large portions of the Southwest have experienced drought conditions since weekly Drought Monitor records began in 2000. While two indicators in this report present information about unusually high or low temperatures and drought on a national scale (see the High and Low Temperatures indicator and the Drought indicator), this feature highlights the Southwest because of its particular sensitivity to temperature and drought. Flows in late summer are correspondingly reduced, leading to extra pressure on the states water supplies. While changes in the growing season can have a positive effect on some crops (such as melons and sweet potatoes), altered flowering patterns due to more frost-free days can lead to early bud bursts, damaging perennial crops such as nuts and stone fruits. In fact, this monsoon may turn out to be the wettest on record for some places! Modified from illustrations by Wade Greenberg-Brand originally published inThe Teacher-Friendly Guide to the Earth Science of the SouthwesternUS. There is a rich marine fossil record from the areas between these islands. August 2022 U.S. Climate Outlook: a wet Southwest - NOAA Climate.gov Wind moves the air, promoting mixing. Volcanic activity intensified in the Southwest, and the Basin and Range region began to form, leading to the topography that is seen in those areas today (i.e., low valleys alternating with high mountain ranges). Unfortunately, unpredictable winds spread the flames, which, combined with dry conditions, caused the Calf Canyon and Hermit Peak fires to grow beyond control. In the late Eocene, the Earth began to cool, and global temperatures fell sharply at the boundary between the Eocene and Oligocene epochs (approximately 35 million years ago), due in part to the separation of South Americas southern tip from Antarctica. Positive values represent wetter-than-average conditions, while negative values represent drier-than-average conditions. August 2021 National Climate Report | National Centers for AccuWeather's 2021 US Summer Forecast | AccuWeather (2015) . Not really sure if it's possible to even find that rabbit hole let alone getting to the end of it :) Good luck. Notice that North America has separated from Africa and there is a spreading center in the Central Atlantic Ocean. The cycling layers in thesandstone represent changes in the direction of prevailing winds as large sand dunes migratedacross the desert. Shallow seaways spread over many of the continents, including South America, Africa, Eurasia, and North America. After the end-Cretaceous bolide impact, the climate may have cooled briefly, but it soon rebounded to a warmer state. The North Rim is 8000 feet (2438meters) to 9000 feet (2743 meters) above sea level. Summer temperatures on the South Rim, at 7000 feet (2134 meters), are especially pleasant from 50 to about 85 F (10s to 20s C). By the end of the Cretaceous, uplift to the west was great enough that the resulting hills shed large amounts of sand and gravel in an easterly direction, pushing the shoreline eastward until sediment (combined with a worldwide drop in sea level) filled the area formerly occupied by the Western Interior Seaway. This circulation brings thunderstorms and rainfall to the monsoon region, providing much of their annual total precipitation. Used under a Creative Commons license. In the latest Cretaceous, sea level dropped again and the western Southwest became a broad coastal plain that hosted lush forests, abundant dinosaurs, and large swamps. Seems likely that conditions in the GM may influence annual variations in the monsoon. The first letter of each zone in the key indicates its major classification. Climate of the United States - Wikipedia Fossil ammonoid (Nigericeras scotti) from the Late Cretaceous Greenhorn Limestone, Baca County, Colorado. For the climate on early Earth prior to 541 million years ago, see the Introduction to Climate section. Brown indicates areas where experts forecast drought will persist or worsen. Funnel clouds (developing tornadoes) over El Paso County, Colorado, March 29, 2019. We are largely unaware of this precipitation because of the Southern California Chamber of Commerce and a lack of rain gauges. Precipitation forms. MacDonald, G.M. Cycads are a group of seed plants that look superficially similar to palms, but are not closely related to them and do not produce flowers. Here, the states varied topography leads to wide changes in climactic conditions that occur across short distances. Regional overview Southwest. Like the summer monsoons, the milder storms . The thicker line is a nine-year weighted average. The Climate of the U.S. Southwest | CLIMAS The impacts of the monsoon go beyond just rainfall amounts. Thus, even a small increase in temperature (which drives evaporation) or a decrease in precipitation in this already arid region can seriously threaten natural systems and society. Image by The High Fin Sperm Whale, created from images by NOAA National Weather Service training material (Wikimedia Commons, public domain). The elevation of Bear Lake is about 2880 meters (9450 feet). During the winter, moisture travels from the west, as storms from the Pacific Ocean move east. Ill be back on my regular beat in a couple of weeks with the September ENSO update. Climate Change in the Southwest - Potential Impacts - National Park Service PRI is a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Temperature and Precipitation | CLIMAS Thus, each Southwestern state experiences both extreme highs and lows. Photo by Center for Land Use Interpretation(Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 license, image resized). Credits for individual images are given in figure captions. The Southwest is typically dry, hot, and humid. The March-April-May (MAM) 2023 temperature outlook favors below-normal. The American Southwest, here defined as the area between 95W and 125W and 25N and 40N, 9 covers over four million square kilometers. One controversial hypothesis proposes that an area of western Coloradoone of the islands that dotted the early Carboniferous seawas, in fact, glaciated. Before the Isthmus closed, the Atlantic and Pacific oceans were connected. Has hurricanes and tornadoes. In chapter 8.3, How is the water cycle changing and why?, the report states In summary, both paleoclimate evidence and observations indicate an intensification of the NAmerM in a warmer climate (medium confidence). Some areas were more than2F warmer than average (see Figure 1). So is climate change increasing monsoon variability? Zack also mentioned our good friend El Nio! Branches and leaves of an ancient conifer (Walchia dawsonii), Permian Hermit Shale, Arizona. Recent warming within the Southwest has been among the most rapid in the United States, and models predict that the area's climate will continue to warm. Photo by Daniel Mayer (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, image resized). This project was made possible in part by the Institute of Museum and Library Services (ARPML-250637-OMLS-22).The views, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this website do not necessarily represent those of the Institute of Museum and Library Services. For example, parts of the Colorado Rockies experience cool annual temperatures and over 8 meters (25 feet) of snowfall every year, while the dry deserts in southwestern Arizona receive only about 8 centimeters (3 inches) of precipitation a year and can experience as much as a 15C (60F) degree temperature difference between night and day. Data for Figure 2 were provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center. Arizona monsoon cloud with lightning striking the beautiful Sonoran desert in North Scottsdale. Here, oases with large trees, large colonies of burrowing animals, and reptile trackways punctuated the otherwise dry and sandy landscape. Summer rains fall almost entirely during brief but intense thunderstorms on the Great Plains, although the occasional hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico may push heavier precipitation inland. At the close of the Mesozoic, global climatealthough warmer than todaywas cooler than at the start of the era. What Is The Climate Of The Southwest Region - BikeHike There is also an important relationship between rainfall and temperature: usually, more rain leads to cooler conditions, and less rain leads to hotter conditions. During winter months, daytime temperatures may average 70 degrees F, with night temperatures often falling to freezing of slightly below in the lower desert valleys."
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